FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 7, 2020
Santa Clara County, CA – On April 7, 2020, County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody presented modeling related to the spread of COVID-19 in our community and the anticipated surge in hospitalizations to the Board of Supervisors and the public. These models were prepared through a collaboration between Public Health Department epidemiologists and disease modeling experts at Stanford University School of Medicine.
These models were developed using data from our County including current case counts, current cases hospitalized, and information that we know about the clinical course of cases here and elsewhere. They provide a projection of possible outcomes, and a range of uncertainty around those outcomes, their timing and magnitude.
"Models enable us to project of possible outcomes," said Dr. Cody. "There's uncertainty around all these models, but they help us plan for and understand the impact of the interventions we have in place, including our order to shelter in place."
The models strongly suggest that the Shelter in Place order has significantly reduced the growth in cases. The projections show that case counts are likely to be far lower than they would have been without the Shelter in Place Order. These are only models, however, and many factors can change future outcomes, including our continued ability to maintain the shelter in place. These projections should also be interpreted knowing we still have limited testing capacity.
Additionally, models on hospitalizations suggest that the order to Shelter in Place has both reduced and delayed hospitalizations. This flattening of the curve gives our community much needed additional time to increase our surge capacity.
Visit the County of Santa Clara COVID-19 website for frequent updates.
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